Grading the guru: How'd Bob Coen do?

Much attention was paid last week to the annual forecast of next year's advertising spending by Universal McCann forecasting guru Bob Coen (12/7/04 RBR #237). But before we embrace his 2005 projections, shouldn't we take a look at his track record for 2004? As Coen noted, he did pretty well - - underestimating overall national ad spending a bit, while being a bit too bullish on local. The total increase in ad spending now projected for 2005 is now 7.4%, outpacing his forecast of 6.9% a year ago, but up only one tenths of a point from his June revision. His worst call, though, was radio, where he held onto his bullish belief that the impact of political spending would be much greater than what materialized. Instead of 7%, national rose only 2%. Local gained 4% instead of 6%. He was much closer to the mark on TV, with national spot, syndication and local all coming in even a bit better than Coen's forecast. Our chart gives you all of the numbers to compare.

Bob Coen's advertising forecast for 2004

Media	as of 12/03	as of 6/04	as of 12/04	Ad spend (millions)
Four TV networks	12.0%	10.0%	9.5%	$16,458
National spot TV	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	$10,943
Cable TV	12.0%	14.0%	12.0%	$15,628
Syndication TV	9.0%	13.0%	15.0%	$3,949
National radio (net & spot)	7.0%	7.0%	2.0%	$4,427
Magazines	5.0%	5.0%	6.0%	$12,121
National newspaper	7.5%	6.5%	5.5%	$7,762
Direct mail	5.0%	6.5%	8.0%	$52,240
National yellow pages	3.5%	1.0%	1.0%	$2,135
Internet	10.0%	20.0%	25.0%	$7,062
Other national media	7.0%	7.2%	7.8%	$33,269
TOTAL NATIONAL	7.4%	8.3%	8.9%	$165,994
Local newspaper	6.0%	4.5%	4.5%	$39,173
Local TV	7.0%	8.0%	8.5%	$14,670
Local radio	6.0%	6.0%	4.0%	$15,352
Local yellow pages	3.5%	2.0%	1.0%	$11,900
Other local media	7.2%	8.2%	7.5%	$16,610
TOTAL LOCAL	6.0%	7.3%	5.1%	$97,705
GRAND TOTAL	6.9%	7.3%	7.4%	$263,699
Source: Universal McCann

RBR observation:
Coen's forecast of a modest gain in the TV station business (local +2.5%/national spot -1.0%) in 2005 is a bit more bullish than the flat projection of the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVBR) and a bit more bullish than the early consensus from Wall Street. Much as we'd like to see Coen be right on this one, we're not ready to bet the farm on it. But his crystal ball gazing was pretty good for 2004...